Europe - Age structure
Population and migration
978-3-14-100890-6 | Page 68 | Ill. 1
Overview
In many cases, a visualised representation of the age structure of individual states enables initial statements or assumptions to be made about the economic and socio-cultural situation of the respective individual state. So-called population pyramids serve as a visual basis for the observation and evaluation of selected case studies in order to be able to classify them in existing demographic models.
The demographic transition model
The demographic transition model ideally describes the natural development of a population during the transition from an agricultural to an industrial society. The pre-transformative phase is initially characterised by high birth and death rates. The early transformative phase shows a constant or even slightly increasing birth rate, while the death rate declines. As a result, there is strong natural population growth. In the high-transformative phase, the mortality rate continues to fall, but the birth rate also decreases increasingly, which is why the maximum natural growth rate is achieved here. In the late-transformative phase, the birth rate continues to fall while the death rate remains low. A fifth phase, the post-transformative phase, is characterised by falling, low birth rates and slightly rising death rates.
Weak points of the models
That the phenomenon of declining populations is not limited to the most developed states is shown by the example of Bulgaria. There, due to the difficult living conditions and low incomes, the selective migration of young, qualified people is very high (especially to Western and Central Europe). This reduces the generation of potential parents and leads to persistently strong declining birth rates.
Population pyramids
The population pyramids (or age diagrams) of the states can be assigned to the model phases described. The majority of European states are in the late-transformative phase (low population growth), while some, including Germany, are in the post-transformative phase (declining population). The population pyramids of such states have the shape of an urn, with some countries showing clear cuts as a result of the world wars (Poland, Russia; high numbers of victims, smaller parent generations). Only Turkey has a population pyramid in the shape of a beehive, which signals a stable population in the longer term.
